Betting Lines
| Spread | ARST -4.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 160.5 Under |
| Money | ARST -192 TROY +160 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ARST win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ARST +12 | 160 | Won |
| Massey | ARST -3.7 (+8.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 172.4 (-12.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 62% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 79% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ARST -2.5 (+9.5) | 163.1 (-3.1) | 64% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | ARST -4.2 (+7.8) | 162.3 (-2.3) | 70% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ARST -2.8 (+9.2) | 158.9 (+1.1) | 66% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | ARST -2.6 (+9.4) | 160.6 (-0.6) | 58% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 17, 2026 | TROY 99 – 74 ARST |
| Mar 10, 2025 | TROY 94 – 81 ARST |
| Feb 16, 2025 | TROY 71 – 70 ARST |
| Jan 11, 2025 | ARST 84 – 78 TROY |
| Feb 23, 2024 | ARST 79 – 71 TROY |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ARST | TROY |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 20-12 | 22-12 |
| Conference | 11-7 | 12-6 |
| Home | 11-4 | 10-3 |
| Away | 9-7 | 9-7 |
| Neutral | 0-1 | 3-2 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 81.8 | 77.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 78.0 | 74.5 |
| Massey | 1.6 (#144) | 1.6 (#142) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.02 (#95) | 1.18 (#87) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.36 (#95) | 0.75 (#126) |
| RPI | 0.580 (#57) | 0.587 (#51) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ARST | TROY |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.6% | 44.1% |
| 3PT% | 30.5% | 34.1% |
| REB / G | 39.8 | 38.8 |
| OREB / G | 13.8 | 12.6 |
| AST / TO | 0.94 | 1.12 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.1% | 51.8% |
| TOV% | 19.7% | 17.7% |
| ORB% | 37.0% | 33.1% |
| FT Rate | 29.7% | 28.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.8% | 50.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.6% | 17.7% |
| DRB% | 71.5% | 66.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 28.3% | 22.9% |
Game Analysis
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