Betting Lines
| Spread | ARST -1.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 154.5 Under |
| Money | ARST -110 TROY +120 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ARST win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ARST +8 | 150 | Won |
| Massey | ARST -1.5 (+6.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 158.1 (-8.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 57% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 57% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ARST -0.9 (+7.1) | 156.9 (-6.9) | 59% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | TROY -0.5 (+8.5) | 157.4 (-7.4) | 51% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ARST -1.2 (+6.8) | 154.9 (-4.9) | 56% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | ARST -0.9 (+7.1) | 155.8 (-5.8) | 56% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 17, 2026 | TROY 99 – 74 ARST |
| Jan 8, 2026 | ARST 86 – 74 TROY |
| Mar 10, 2025 | TROY 94 – 81 ARST |
| Feb 16, 2025 | TROY 71 – 70 ARST |
| Jan 11, 2025 | ARST 84 – 78 TROY |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ARST | TROY |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 20-17 | 20-12 |
| Conference | 11-7 | 13-5 |
| Home | 10-3 | 15-2 |
| Away | 5-11 | 5-9 |
| Neutral | 5-3 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 78.8 | 77.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 77.0 | 72.6 |
| Massey | 0.6 (#156) | 2.5 (#131) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.16 (#186) | 0.19 (#154) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.01 (#168) | 0.43 (#144) |
| RPI | 0.495 (#184) | 0.519 (#137) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ARST | TROY |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.3% | 42.8% |
| 3PT% | 35.4% | 35.2% |
| REB / G | 37.9 | 38.7 |
| OREB / G | 13.0 | 13.3 |
| AST / TO | 1.26 | 0.94 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.1% | 49.9% |
| TOV% | 16.5% | 19.1% |
| ORB% | 34.1% | 35.4% |
| FT Rate | 23.6% | 28.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.2% | 48.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 14.0% | 19.8% |
| DRB% | 69.7% | 69.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 29.0% | 26.0% |
Game Analysis
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