Betting Lines
| Spread | TROY -2.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 144.5 Over |
| Money | TROY -135 ARST +115 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | TROY win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ARST +6 | 162 | Lost |
| Massey | TROY -2.4 (-8.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 141.4 (+20.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 60% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 58% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | TROY -1.1 (-7.1) | 140.0 (+22.0) | 56% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | TROY -1.1 (-7.1) | 141.3 (+20.7) | 61% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | TROY -1.4 (-7.4) | 138.7 (+23.3) | 58% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | TROY -1.1 (-7.1) | 139.6 (+22.4) | 55% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 17, 2026 | TROY 99 – 74 ARST |
| Jan 8, 2026 | ARST 86 – 74 TROY |
| Mar 10, 2025 | TROY 94 – 81 ARST |
| Feb 16, 2025 | TROY 71 – 70 ARST |
| Feb 23, 2024 | ARST 79 – 71 TROY |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | TROY | ARST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 23-11 | 25-11 |
| Conference | 13-5 | 13-5 |
| Home | 11-4 | 14-2 |
| Away | 9-6 | 8-6 |
| Neutral | 3-1 | 3-3 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.0 | 78.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 66.3 | 70.5 |
| Massey | 3.2 (#112) | 4.7 (#97) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.52 (#127) | 0.86 (#98) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.71 (#120) | 1.25 (#94) |
| RPI | 0.531 (#112) | 0.565 (#67) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | TROY | ARST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.3% | 40.6% |
| 3PT% | 29.4% | 30.8% |
| REB / G | 35.5 | 40.3 |
| OREB / G | 12.5 | 13.1 |
| AST / TO | 0.91 | 1.02 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.4% | 47.5% |
| TOV% | 22.9% | 15.7% |
| ORB% | 38.1% | 32.2% |
| FT Rate | 27.2% | 25.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.5% | 45.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.4% | 18.1% |
| DRB% | 66.9% | 67.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 18.0% | 27.1% |
Game Analysis
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