Betting Lines
| Spread | TXST -5.0 Away covered |
| O/U | 132.5 Under |
| Money | ULM +175 TXST -210 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ULM win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | TXST +9 | 117 | Lost |
| Massey | TXST -4.2 (-4.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 139.4 (-22.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 36% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 32% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | TXST -4.2 (-4.8) | 130.9 (-13.9) | 30% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | TXST -2.4 (-6.6) | 138.2 (-21.2) | 39% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | TXST -2.4 (-6.6) | 139.0 (-22.0) | 40% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | TXST -3.0 (-6.0) | 136.4 (-19.4) | 37% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 14, 2026 | TXST 95 – 84 ULM |
| Jan 3, 2026 | TXST 84 – 79 ULM |
| Feb 20, 2025 | TXST 80 – 63 ULM |
| Feb 14, 2025 | TXST 72 – 60 ULM |
| Feb 28, 2024 | TXST 73 – 55 ULM |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ULM | TXST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 13-18 | 21-8 |
| Conference | 5-13 | 12-3 |
| Home | 7-7 | 12-1 |
| Away | 5-10 | 7-6 |
| Neutral | 1-1 | 2-1 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L6 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 69.2 | 68.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 75.4 | 65.3 |
| Massey | -6.7 (#281) | 0.6 (#156) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.24 (#197) | 0.87 (#110) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.51 (#211) | 0.83 (#116) |
| RPI | 0.497 (#178) | 0.538 (#107) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ULM | TXST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.7% | 46.0% |
| 3PT% | 32.5% | 37.4% |
| REB / G | 31.2 | 32.3 |
| OREB / G | 8.8 | 10.3 |
| AST / TO | 1.15 | 0.98 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.4% | 51.6% |
| TOV% | 19.4% | 19.7% |
| ORB% | 26.0% | 32.7% |
| FT Rate | 18.7% | 22.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 53.3% | 52.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.0% | 22.1% |
| DRB% | 65.7% | 70.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.5% | 25.3% |
Game Analysis
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