Betting Lines
| Spread | LIB -5.0 Home covered |
| O/U | 124.5 Over |
| Money | JAX +190 LIB -230 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | JAX win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | JAX +4 | 142 | Won |
| Massey | LIB -3.6 (+7.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 120.0 (+22.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 40% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 39% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | LIB -0.8 (+4.8) | 128.4 (+13.6) | 46% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | LIB -3.5 (+7.5) | 129.4 (+12.6) | 40% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | LIB -1.0 (+5.0) | 129.8 (+12.2) | 44% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | LIB -1.5 (+5.5) | 130.1 (+11.9) | 41% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 20, 2023 | LIB 66 – 52 JAX |
| Jan 19, 2022 | LIB 88 – 49 JAX |
| Jan 30, 2021 | LIB 64 – 58 JAX |
| Jan 30, 2021 | LIB 59 – 54 JAX |
Game Analysis
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