Betting Lines
| Spread | LIB -11.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 130.5 Under |
| Money | JAX +600 LIB -700 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | JAX win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | LIB +5 | 113 | Lost |
| Massey | LIB -13.2 (+8.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 135.2 (-22.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 12% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 6% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | LIB -10.0 (+5.0) | 134.9 (-21.9) | 16% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | LIB -10.6 (+5.6) | 129.9 (-16.9) | 19% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | LIB -11.8 (+6.8) | 136.1 (-23.1) | 15% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | LIB -10.0 (+5.0) | 135.0 (-22.0) | 15% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 20, 2023 | LIB 66 – 52 JAX |
| Feb 12, 2022 | JAX 73 – 69 LIB |
| Jan 19, 2022 | LIB 88 – 49 JAX |
| Jan 30, 2021 | LIB 64 – 58 JAX |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | JAX | LIB |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 11-13 | 23-6 |
| Conference | 5-9 | 11-2 |
| Home | 7-5 | 13-0 |
| Away | 4-8 | 5-3 |
| Neutral | 0-0 | 5-3 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 65.7 | 72.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.1 | 62.5 |
| Massey | -9.7 (#308) | 6.0 (#90) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.73 (#302) | 0.74 (#120) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -2.07 (#289) | 1.24 (#104) |
| RPI | 0.396 (#313) | 0.507 (#148) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | JAX | LIB |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.5% | 47.5% |
| 3PT% | 30.9% | 37.3% |
| REB / G | 33.2 | 32.0 |
| OREB / G | 9.4 | 6.6 |
| AST / TO | 0.75 | 1.46 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 48.4% | 56.6% |
| TOV% | 20.1% | 15.6% |
| ORB% | 25.7% | 21.9% |
| FT Rate | 21.9% | 18.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.7% | 47.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 23.0% | 17.7% |
| DRB% | 67.5% | 76.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 19.3% | 22.0% |
Game Analysis
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