Betting Lines
| Spread | DUKE -14.0 Home covered |
| O/U | 140.5 Under |
| Money | BC +700 DUKE -1100 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | BC win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | DUKE +11 | 133 | Lost |
| Massey | DUKE -14.3 (+3.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 138.0 (-5.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 6% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 2% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | DUKE -10.4 (-0.6) | 137.0 (-4.0) | 18% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | DUKE -11.2 (+0.2) | 135.6 (-2.6) | 19% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | DUKE -12.9 (+1.9) | 136.3 (-3.3) | 15% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | DUKE -11.7 (+0.7) | 134.6 (-1.6) | 16% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 4, 2026 | DUKE 67 – 49 BC |
| Jan 19, 2025 | DUKE 88 – 63 BC |
| Feb 10, 2024 | DUKE 80 – 65 BC |
| Jan 7, 2023 | DUKE 65 – 64 BC |
| Dec 3, 2022 | DUKE 75 – 59 BC |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | BC | DUKE |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 13-20 | 32-7 |
| Conference | 6-14 | 16-4 |
| Home | 9-7 | 15-3 |
| Away | 2-10 | 9-2 |
| Neutral | 2-3 | 8-2 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 66.9 | 80.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 68.1 | 67.8 |
| Massey | 0.7 (#150) | 18.1 (#10) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.34 (#207) | 2.87 (#15) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.16 (#188) | 4.42 (#5) |
| RPI | 0.451 (#261) | 0.622 (#16) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | BC | DUKE |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 40.9% | 48.5% |
| 3PT% | 30.2% | 36.8% |
| REB / G | 35.9 | 39.2 |
| OREB / G | 11.5 | 10.7 |
| AST / TO | 1.00 | 1.64 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 45.7% | 55.1% |
| TOV% | 17.2% | 15.3% |
| ORB% | 31.2% | 31.5% |
| FT Rate | 21.5% | 20.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.6% | 45.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.2% | 17.2% |
| DRB% | 76.0% | 71.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.4% | 12.1% |
Game Analysis
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