Betting Lines
| Spread | DUKE -12.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 147.5 Under |
| Money | DUKE -1000 BC +550 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | DUKE win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | DUKE +15 | 145 | Won |
| Massey | DUKE -12.6 (+2.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 152.7 (-7.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 85% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 88% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | DUKE -11.6 (+3.4) | 147.5 (-2.5) | 85% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | DUKE -11.7 (+3.3) | 145.8 (-0.8) | 86% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | DUKE -10.7 (+4.3) | 148.1 (-3.1) | 86% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | DUKE -10.5 (+4.5) | 147.0 (-2.0) | 85% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 4, 2026 | DUKE 67 – 49 BC |
| Jan 19, 2025 | DUKE 88 – 63 BC |
| Jan 7, 2023 | DUKE 65 – 64 BC |
| Dec 3, 2022 | DUKE 75 – 59 BC |
| Feb 12, 2022 | DUKE 72 – 61 BC |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | DUKE | BC |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 27-9 | 20-16 |
| Conference | 15-5 | 8-12 |
| Home | 15-3 | 10-6 |
| Away | 7-4 | 7-7 |
| Neutral | 5-2 | 3-3 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 78.6 | 74.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 66.3 | 71.9 |
| Massey | 15.6 (#16) | 6.4 (#89) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.22 (#28) | 1.13 (#90) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.92 (#22) | 1.56 (#86) |
| RPI | 0.593 (#37) | 0.548 (#97) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | DUKE | BC |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 48.1% | 46.2% |
| 3PT% | 37.5% | 36.0% |
| REB / G | 36.1 | 35.0 |
| OREB / G | 9.8 | 9.3 |
| AST / TO | 1.64 | 1.30 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 54.9% | 52.7% |
| TOV% | 13.7% | 15.3% |
| ORB% | 29.4% | 26.9% |
| FT Rate | 26.1% | 20.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.4% | 50.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.7% | 17.3% |
| DRB% | 75.7% | 73.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 19.4% | 21.0% |
Game Analysis
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