Betting Lines
| Spread | DUKE -8.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 131.5 Under |
| Money | BC +310 DUKE -450 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | BC win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | DUKE +1 | 129 | Lost |
| Massey | DUKE -10.1 (+9.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 128.8 (+0.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 18% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 12% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | DUKE -12.1 (+11.1) | 132.6 (-3.6) | 16% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | DUKE -9.2 (+8.2) | 134.0 (-5.0) | 18% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | DUKE -10.1 (+9.1) | 134.7 (-5.7) | 18% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | DUKE -10.2 (+9.2) | 133.9 (-4.9) | 18% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 4, 2026 | DUKE 67 – 49 BC |
| Jan 19, 2025 | DUKE 88 – 63 BC |
| Feb 10, 2024 | DUKE 80 – 65 BC |
| Dec 3, 2022 | DUKE 75 – 59 BC |
| Feb 12, 2022 | DUKE 72 – 61 BC |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | BC | DUKE |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 16-17 | 27-9 |
| Conference | 9-11 | 14-6 |
| Home | 9-7 | 16-0 |
| Away | 4-7 | 4-6 |
| Neutral | 3-3 | 7-3 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 66.6 | 72.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.2 | 63.6 |
| Massey | -2.7 (#218) | 11.7 (#29) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.01 (#176) | 2.31 (#26) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.10 (#167) | 2.98 (#29) |
| RPI | 0.498 (#188) | 0.614 (#21) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | BC | DUKE |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.0% | 44.1% |
| 3PT% | 26.5% | 32.6% |
| REB / G | 35.2 | 39.2 |
| OREB / G | 10.3 | 13.1 |
| AST / TO | 0.83 | 1.16 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 45.8% | 50.0% |
| TOV% | 18.2% | 18.5% |
| ORB% | 28.4% | 37.9% |
| FT Rate | 20.6% | 23.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.5% | 46.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.7% | 19.1% |
| DRB% | 72.7% | 74.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 17.8% | 18.3% |
Game Analysis
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