Betting Lines
| Spread | DUKE -26.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 141.5 Under |
| Money | DUKE -6500 BC +2000 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | DUKE win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | DUKE +18 | 116 | Won |
| Massey | DUKE -28.9 (-10.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 136.4 (-20.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 100% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 100% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | DUKE -23.4 (-5.4) | 137.9 (-21.9) | 90% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | DUKE -20.6 (-2.6) | 134.0 (-18.0) | 91% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | DUKE -25.0 (-7.0) | 137.1 (-21.1) | 91% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | DUKE -25.8 (-7.8) | 136.3 (-20.3) | 91% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 19, 2025 | DUKE 88 – 63 BC |
| Feb 10, 2024 | DUKE 80 – 65 BC |
| Jan 7, 2023 | DUKE 65 – 64 BC |
| Dec 3, 2022 | DUKE 75 – 59 BC |
| Feb 12, 2022 | DUKE 72 – 61 BC |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | DUKE | BC |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 35-3 | 11-20 |
| Conference | 17-1 | 4-14 |
| Home | 15-0 | 10-7 |
| Away | 10-1 | 1-10 |
| Neutral | 10-2 | 0-3 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | W1 |
| Avg Pts For | 81.6 | 67.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 63.6 | 70.7 |
| Massey | 27.4 (#2) | 1.5 (#142) |
| Bradley-Terry | 5.06 (#4) | -0.27 (#197) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 7.16 (#3) | -0.00 (#165) |
| RPI | 0.686 (#2) | 0.483 (#215) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | DUKE | BC |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 50.0% | 40.5% |
| 3PT% | 34.0% | 29.6% |
| REB / G | 40.1 | 37.6 |
| OREB / G | 12.5 | 10.9 |
| AST / TO | 1.53 | 1.09 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 57.6% | 46.8% |
| TOV% | 16.3% | 15.5% |
| ORB% | 38.1% | 28.7% |
| FT Rate | 29.3% | 23.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 46.0% | 46.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.5% | 15.2% |
| DRB% | 73.8% | 70.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 17.0% | 22.0% |
Game Analysis
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