Betting Lines
| Spread | DUKE -18.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 130.5 Over |
| Money | DUKE -5000 BC +1200 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | DUKE win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | DUKE +16 | 134 | Won |
| Massey | DUKE -20.6 (-4.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 123.6 (+10.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 94% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 98% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | DUKE -17.1 (-1.1) | 129.4 (+4.6) | 88% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | DUKE -13.9 (+2.1) | 131.4 (+2.6) | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | DUKE -14.4 (+1.6) | 132.6 (+1.4) | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | DUKE -14.6 (+1.4) | 131.3 (+2.7) | 87% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 4, 2026 | DUKE 67 – 49 BC |
| Jan 19, 2025 | DUKE 88 – 63 BC |
| Feb 10, 2024 | DUKE 80 – 65 BC |
| Jan 7, 2023 | DUKE 65 – 64 BC |
| Feb 12, 2022 | DUKE 72 – 61 BC |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | DUKE | BC |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 27-9 | 16-17 |
| Conference | 14-6 | 9-11 |
| Home | 16-0 | 9-7 |
| Away | 4-6 | 4-7 |
| Neutral | 7-3 | 3-3 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.0 | 66.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 63.6 | 70.2 |
| Massey | 11.9 (#29) | -2.6 (#224) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.98 (#45) | 0.42 (#147) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.93 (#47) | 0.43 (#157) |
| RPI | 0.607 (#45) | 0.531 (#136) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | DUKE | BC |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.1% | 42.6% |
| 3PT% | 29.7% | 29.8% |
| REB / G | 41.1 | 34.4 |
| OREB / G | 15.4 | 9.9 |
| AST / TO | 1.16 | 0.78 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 47.3% | 46.7% |
| TOV% | 17.6% | 19.2% |
| ORB% | 42.1% | 28.3% |
| FT Rate | 24.3% | 22.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 44.9% | 50.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.9% | 21.7% |
| DRB% | 74.5% | 74.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 17.7% | 18.3% |
Game Analysis
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