Betting Lines
| Spread | UNC -9.0 Home covered |
| O/U | 145.0 Over |
| Money | UNC -440 FSU +340 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UNC win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UNC +20 | 168 | Won |
| Massey | UNC -6.9 (+13.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 148.8 (+19.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 81% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 88% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UNC -7.4 (+12.6) | 148.7 (+19.3) | 79% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UNC -6.7 (+13.3) | 147.6 (+20.4) | 77% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UNC -7.0 (+13.0) | 147.6 (+20.4) | 77% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UNC -7.1 (+12.9) | 148.8 (+19.2) | 77% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 31, 2025 | UNC 79 – 66 FSU |
| Feb 25, 2025 | UNC 96 – 85 FSU |
| Mar 14, 2024 | UNC 92 – 67 FSU |
| Jan 27, 2024 | UNC 75 – 68 FSU |
| Dec 2, 2023 | UNC 78 – 70 FSU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UNC | FSU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 29-10 | 17-14 |
| Conference | 15-5 | 10-10 |
| Home | 15-2 | 11-4 |
| Away | 8-3 | 4-8 |
| Neutral | 6-5 | 2-2 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 0-5 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 77.9 | 71.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.3 | 71.9 |
| Massey | 10.0 (#49) | 6.2 (#88) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.02 (#41) | 1.05 (#97) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.45 (#45) | 1.01 (#110) |
| RPI | 0.608 (#27) | 0.532 (#116) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UNC | FSU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.3% | 43.8% |
| 3PT% | 38.4% | 33.4% |
| REB / G | 40.1 | 35.3 |
| OREB / G | 10.7 | 11.3 |
| AST / TO | 1.24 | 1.10 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.2% | 49.6% |
| TOV% | 16.5% | 18.8% |
| ORB% | 30.0% | 31.9% |
| FT Rate | 23.3% | 21.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.0% | 51.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 13.6% | 22.6% |
| DRB% | 79.5% | 71.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 16.1% | 22.0% |
Game Analysis
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