Betting Lines
| Spread | UNC -6.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 154.5 Under |
| Money | FSU +210 UNC -275 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | FSU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UNC +7 | 143 | Lost |
| Massey | UNC -7.1 (+0.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 153.3 (-10.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 28% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 20% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UNC -4.1 (-2.9) | 150.1 (-7.1) | 28% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UNC -4.5 (-2.5) | 147.6 (-4.6) | 30% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UNC -4.4 (-2.6) | 148.1 (-5.1) | 30% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UNC -4.1 (-2.9) | 150.8 (-7.8) | 30% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 31, 2025 | UNC 79 – 66 FSU |
| Feb 25, 2025 | UNC 96 – 85 FSU |
| Mar 14, 2024 | UNC 92 – 67 FSU |
| Dec 2, 2023 | UNC 78 – 70 FSU |
| Feb 28, 2023 | UNC 77 – 66 FSU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | FSU | UNC |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 17-16 | 29-8 |
| Conference | 10-10 | 17-3 |
| Home | 10-7 | 14-1 |
| Away | 4-7 | 8-2 |
| Neutral | 3-2 | 7-5 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 5-0 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 76.5 | 81.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 76.3 | 70.5 |
| Massey | 8.0 (#70) | 18.8 (#7) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.60 (#66) | 3.24 (#4) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.03 (#67) | 4.20 (#4) |
| RPI | 0.597 (#37) | 0.649 (#7) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | FSU | UNC |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.2% | 45.9% |
| 3PT% | 32.7% | 35.6% |
| REB / G | 35.3 | 41.3 |
| OREB / G | 10.6 | 11.8 |
| AST / TO | 1.09 | 1.36 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.4% | 51.9% |
| TOV% | 16.2% | 14.3% |
| ORB% | 28.8% | 32.4% |
| FT Rate | 26.0% | 30.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.4% | 44.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 21.3% | 15.7% |
| DRB% | 69.5% | 76.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 28.5% | 21.4% |
Game Analysis
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