Betting Lines
| Spread | UNC -12.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 157.5 Under |
| Money | UNC -1000 FSU +550 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UNC win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UNC +8 | 148 | Won |
| Massey | UNC -14.1 (-6.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 163.1 (-15.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 92% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 98% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UNC -13.7 (-5.7) | 159.8 (-11.8) | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UNC -10.1 (-2.1) | 156.3 (-8.3) | 84% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UNC -9.6 (-1.6) | 156.5 (-8.5) | 80% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UNC -11.5 (-3.5) | 159.6 (-11.6) | 82% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 31, 2025 | UNC 79 – 66 FSU |
| Feb 25, 2025 | UNC 96 – 85 FSU |
| Mar 14, 2024 | UNC 92 – 67 FSU |
| Jan 27, 2024 | UNC 75 – 68 FSU |
| Feb 28, 2023 | UNC 77 – 66 FSU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UNC | FSU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 29-8 | 17-16 |
| Conference | 17-3 | 10-10 |
| Home | 14-1 | 10-7 |
| Away | 8-2 | 4-7 |
| Neutral | 7-5 | 3-2 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 81.9 | 76.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.5 | 76.3 |
| Massey | 13.1 (#19) | 5.2 (#92) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.58 (#64) | 0.33 (#155) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.06 (#39) | 0.73 (#144) |
| RPI | 0.559 (#91) | 0.555 (#98) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UNC | FSU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.4% | 46.5% |
| 3PT% | 38.0% | 34.8% |
| REB / G | 39.6 | 36.5 |
| OREB / G | 12.4 | 10.3 |
| AST / TO | 1.41 | 1.16 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.0% | 52.7% |
| TOV% | 13.9% | 17.8% |
| ORB% | 34.1% | 29.4% |
| FT Rate | 35.3% | 23.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.1% | 47.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.6% | 22.5% |
| DRB% | 74.8% | 66.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.4% | 30.1% |
Game Analysis
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