Betting Lines
| Spread | UNC -3.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 155.5 Over |
| Money | FSU +145 UNC -175 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | FSU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UNC +11 | 181 | Lost |
| Massey | UNC -2.5 (-8.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 158.3 (+22.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 37% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 33% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UNC -1.7 (-9.3) | 154.0 (+27.0) | 34% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UNC -1.3 (-9.7) | 153.1 (+27.9) | 46% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UNC -1.6 (-9.4) | 155.0 (+26.0) | 46% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UNC -1.3 (-9.7) | 155.4 (+25.6) | 47% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 31, 2025 | UNC 79 – 66 FSU |
| Mar 14, 2024 | UNC 92 – 67 FSU |
| Jan 27, 2024 | UNC 75 – 68 FSU |
| Dec 2, 2023 | UNC 78 – 70 FSU |
| Feb 28, 2023 | UNC 77 – 66 FSU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | FSU | UNC |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 17-15 | 23-14 |
| Conference | 8-12 | 13-7 |
| Home | 11-5 | 12-3 |
| Away | 2-9 | 6-6 |
| Neutral | 4-1 | 5-5 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 74.5 | 80.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 72.5 | 74.7 |
| Massey | 7.2 (#82) | 12.8 (#44) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.94 (#93) | 2.02 (#46) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.18 (#92) | 2.54 (#49) |
| RPI | 0.527 (#124) | 0.605 (#27) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | FSU | UNC |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.7% | 47.4% |
| 3PT% | 31.1% | 33.8% |
| REB / G | 35.2 | 36.7 |
| OREB / G | 10.4 | 9.9 |
| AST / TO | 1.07 | 1.32 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.0% | 53.5% |
| TOV% | 17.7% | 15.2% |
| ORB% | 30.2% | 29.1% |
| FT Rate | 28.4% | 25.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.0% | 49.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.8% | 15.2% |
| DRB% | 69.1% | 72.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 27.1% | 22.8% |
Game Analysis
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