Betting Lines
| Spread | UNC -10.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 157.5 Over |
| Money | UNC -600 FSU +400 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UNC win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UNC +25 | 159 | Won |
| Massey | UNC -10.9 (+14.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 154.8 (+4.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 85% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 91% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UNC -9.3 (+15.7) | 151.1 (+7.9) | 81% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UNC -10.6 (+14.4) | 152.6 (+6.4) | 82% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UNC -10.1 (+14.9) | 151.3 (+7.7) | 82% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UNC -9.6 (+15.4) | 150.0 (+9.0) | 82% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 31, 2025 | UNC 79 – 66 FSU |
| Feb 25, 2025 | UNC 96 – 85 FSU |
| Jan 27, 2024 | UNC 75 – 68 FSU |
| Dec 2, 2023 | UNC 78 – 70 FSU |
| Feb 28, 2023 | UNC 77 – 66 FSU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UNC | FSU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 29-8 | 17-16 |
| Conference | 17-3 | 10-10 |
| Home | 14-1 | 10-7 |
| Away | 8-2 | 4-7 |
| Neutral | 7-5 | 3-2 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 81.9 | 76.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.5 | 76.3 |
| Massey | 18.2 (#9) | 7.4 (#77) |
| Bradley-Terry | 3.02 (#5) | 1.28 (#81) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.97 (#4) | 1.62 (#79) |
| RPI | 0.625 (#8) | 0.550 (#86) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UNC | FSU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.0% | 45.4% |
| 3PT% | 35.8% | 31.9% |
| REB / G | 40.9 | 33.6 |
| OREB / G | 12.0 | 10.3 |
| AST / TO | 1.38 | 1.04 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.4% | 50.5% |
| TOV% | 14.4% | 16.3% |
| ORB% | 32.5% | 28.9% |
| FT Rate | 28.0% | 26.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 46.1% | 51.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.1% | 20.8% |
| DRB% | 75.9% | 67.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.9% | 28.9% |
Game Analysis
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