Betting Lines
| Spread | UNC -12.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 166.5 Under |
| Money | UNC -1050 FSU +675 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UNC win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UNC +13 | 145 | Won |
| Massey | UNC -16.5 (-3.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 156.4 (-11.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 100% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UNC -15.1 (-2.1) | 153.0 (-8.0) | 86% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UNC -13.7 (-0.7) | 157.7 (-12.7) | 86% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UNC -14.5 (-1.5) | 150.3 (-5.3) | 88% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UNC -15.4 (-2.4) | 151.0 (-6.0) | 88% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 25, 2025 | UNC 96 – 85 FSU |
| Mar 14, 2024 | UNC 92 – 67 FSU |
| Jan 27, 2024 | UNC 75 – 68 FSU |
| Dec 2, 2023 | UNC 78 – 70 FSU |
| Feb 28, 2023 | UNC 77 – 66 FSU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UNC | FSU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 24-9 | 18-15 |
| Conference | 12-6 | 10-8 |
| Home | 18-0 | 11-6 |
| Away | 4-6 | 6-5 |
| Neutral | 2-3 | 1-4 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L3 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 79.7 | 80.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.6 | 77.9 |
| Massey | 17.0 (#25) | 4.5 (#109) |
| Bradley-Terry | 3.74 (#12) | 0.10 (#162) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 5.21 (#12) | 0.03 (#162) |
| RPI | 0.654 (#13) | 0.492 (#193) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UNC | FSU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 47.5% | 42.2% |
| 3PT% | 33.6% | 31.4% |
| REB / G | 42.3 | 38.7 |
| OREB / G | 12.1 | 14.6 |
| AST / TO | 1.71 | 1.29 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 54.7% | 50.6% |
| TOV% | 14.6% | 16.4% |
| ORB% | 35.1% | 34.5% |
| FT Rate | 27.7% | 24.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 41.0% | 51.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 13.9% | 22.8% |
| DRB% | 72.4% | 66.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 16.7% | 28.4% |
Game Analysis
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