Betting Lines
| Spread | UNC -7.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 154.5 Under |
| Money | FSU +280 UNC -400 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | FSU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UNC +11 | 143 | Lost |
| Massey | UNC -9.2 (-1.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 154.0 (-11.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 18% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 11% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UNC -9.3 (-1.7) | 154.4 (-11.4) | 19% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UNC -8.6 (-2.4) | 153.7 (-10.7) | 18% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UNC -8.0 (-3.0) | 153.1 (-10.1) | 20% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UNC -8.6 (-2.4) | 154.2 (-11.2) | 19% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 31, 2025 | UNC 79 – 66 FSU |
| Feb 25, 2025 | UNC 96 – 85 FSU |
| Mar 14, 2024 | UNC 92 – 67 FSU |
| Jan 27, 2024 | UNC 75 – 68 FSU |
| Dec 2, 2023 | UNC 78 – 70 FSU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | FSU | UNC |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 9-23 | 20-13 |
| Conference | 7-13 | 11-9 |
| Home | 5-11 | 12-3 |
| Away | 4-7 | 4-7 |
| Neutral | 0-5 | 4-3 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L3 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 69.3 | 76.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 76.2 | 70.9 |
| Massey | -2.3 (#213) | 10.5 (#41) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.33 (#208) | 1.80 (#46) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.40 (#205) | 2.42 (#39) |
| RPI | 0.481 (#215) | 0.585 (#39) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | FSU | UNC |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.7% | 43.6% |
| 3PT% | 33.6% | 30.4% |
| REB / G | 31.3 | 39.9 |
| OREB / G | 8.6 | 11.4 |
| AST / TO | 1.11 | 1.11 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.5% | 49.2% |
| TOV% | 17.7% | 15.1% |
| ORB% | 25.7% | 30.6% |
| FT Rate | 23.3% | 27.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.8% | 48.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.3% | 15.0% |
| DRB% | 67.9% | 76.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.4% | 18.1% |
Game Analysis
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