Betting Lines
| Spread | MOST -12.0 Home covered |
| O/U | 137.0 Over |
| Money | MOST -800 VAL +550 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MOST win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MOST +18 | 150 | Won |
| Massey | MOST -14.0 (+4.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 140.9 (+9.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 89% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 95% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MOST -12.8 (+5.2) | 140.3 (+9.7) | 88% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MOST -12.2 (+5.8) | 141.4 (+8.6) | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | MOST -12.4 (+5.6) | 141.2 (+8.8) | 86% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MOST -13.3 (+4.7) | 141.6 (+8.4) | 87% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 20, 2025 | VAL 66 – 64 MOST |
| Jan 2, 2025 | VAL 73 – 72 MOST |
| Feb 17, 2024 | MOST 82 – 74 VAL |
| Jan 27, 2024 | MOST 81 – 70 VAL |
| Feb 2, 2023 | MOST 76 – 67 VAL |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MOST | VAL |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 23-11 | 14-18 |
| Conference | 13-5 | 6-12 |
| Home | 12-4 | 8-8 |
| Away | 8-5 | 3-8 |
| Neutral | 3-2 | 3-2 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 76.5 | 68.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 69.3 | 71.0 |
| Massey | 9.0 (#58) | -1.9 (#209) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.94 (#105) | -0.66 (#234) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.55 (#87) | -0.73 (#225) |
| RPI | 0.545 (#94) | 0.463 (#235) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MOST | VAL |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 47.8% | 44.6% |
| 3PT% | 36.6% | 33.0% |
| REB / G | 34.6 | 31.5 |
| OREB / G | 8.3 | 6.3 |
| AST / TO | 1.13 | 1.06 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 54.8% | 51.0% |
| TOV% | 15.7% | 16.5% |
| ORB% | 25.8% | 19.1% |
| FT Rate | 21.7% | 19.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.1% | 51.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.5% | 17.3% |
| DRB% | 75.3% | 74.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.1% | 17.7% |
Game Analysis
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