Funky Claude was running in and out / pulling kids out the ground "Smoke On the Water" - Deep Purple
Missouri State Bears
76 67 OT
FINAL Conference
Valparaiso Beacons
Missouri Valley Conference · Great Southern Bank Arena · February 2, 2023
Betting Lines
Spread MOST -9.5 Away covered
O/U 130.5 Over
Money MOST -500 / VAL +350
Model Predictions
Spread Total MOST win
Actual MOST +9 143 Won
Massey MOST -12.4 (-3.4)
Massey Totals 130.1 (+12.9)
Bradley-Terry 84%
Weighted B-T 89%
Baseline ML MOST -9.3 (-0.3) 132.6 (+10.4) 83%
Baseline Plus ML MOST -9.1 (-0.1) 131.8 (+11.2) 82%
Efficiency Plus ML MOST -11.6 (-2.6) 129.9 (+13.1) 85%
Baseline Tuned ML MOST -8.4 (+0.6) 131.9 (+11.1) 83%

Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →

Last 5 Meetings

Feb 20, 2025 VAL 6664 MOST
Jan 2, 2025 VAL 7372 MOST
Feb 17, 2024 MOST 8274 VAL
Jan 27, 2024 MOST 8170 VAL
Mar 5, 2022 MOST 6758 VAL

Team Comparison

Record & Ratings MOST VAL
Overall 17-15 11-21
Conference 12-8 5-15
Home 10-4 8-7
Away 5-8 2-12
Neutral 2-3 1-2
Last 5 3-2 4-1
Streak L1 L5
Avg Pts For 65.0 68.1
Avg Pts Against 63.7 74.0
Massey 2.0 (#129) -6.9 (#289)
Bradley-Terry 0.14 (#160) -0.88 (#265)
W. Bradley-Terry 0.14 (#160) -1.18 (#269)
RPI 0.524 (#137) 0.443 (#287)
Shooting & Four Factors MOST VAL
FG% 42.7% 43.7%
3PT% 32.6% 29.6%
REB / G 34.3 33.6
OREB / G 11.2 7.8
AST / TO 0.90 1.01
Four Factors — Offense
eFG% 49.9% 49.0%
TOV% 19.5% 18.2%
ORB% 32.6% 22.6%
FT Rate 17.4% 20.1%
Four Factors — Defense
Opp eFG% 49.8% 51.2%
Opp TOV% 19.9% 16.3%
DRB% 73.0% 76.0%
Opp FT Rate 22.8% 24.3%

Game Analysis

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