Betting Lines
| Spread | MOST -9.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 130.5 Over |
| Money | MOST -500 VAL +350 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MOST win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MOST +9 | 143 | Won |
| Massey | MOST -12.4 (-3.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 130.1 (+12.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 84% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 89% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MOST -11.6 (-2.6) | 129.9 (+13.1) | 85% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MOST -8.4 (+0.6) | 131.9 (+11.1) | 83% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | MOST -9.3 (-0.3) | 132.6 (+10.4) | 83% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MOST -9.1 (-0.1) | 131.8 (+11.2) | 82% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 20, 2025 | VAL 66 – 64 MOST |
| Jan 2, 2025 | VAL 73 – 72 MOST |
| Feb 17, 2024 | MOST 82 – 74 VAL |
| Jan 27, 2024 | MOST 81 – 70 VAL |
| Mar 5, 2022 | MOST 67 – 58 VAL |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MOST | VAL |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 17-15 | 11-21 |
| Conference | 12-8 | 5-15 |
| Home | 10-4 | 8-7 |
| Away | 5-8 | 2-12 |
| Neutral | 2-3 | 1-2 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L5 |
| Avg Pts For | 65.0 | 68.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 63.7 | 74.0 |
| Massey | 2.0 (#129) | -6.9 (#289) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.14 (#160) | -0.88 (#265) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.14 (#160) | -1.18 (#269) |
| RPI | 0.524 (#137) | 0.443 (#287) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MOST | VAL |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.7% | 43.7% |
| 3PT% | 32.6% | 29.6% |
| REB / G | 34.3 | 33.6 |
| OREB / G | 11.2 | 7.8 |
| AST / TO | 0.90 | 1.01 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.9% | 49.0% |
| TOV% | 19.5% | 18.2% |
| ORB% | 32.6% | 22.6% |
| FT Rate | 17.4% | 20.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.8% | 51.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.9% | 16.3% |
| DRB% | 73.0% | 76.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.8% | 24.3% |
Game Analysis
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