Betting Lines
| Spread | MOST -12.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 143.5 Over |
| Money | MOST -1000 VAL +550 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MOST win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MOST +8 | 156 | Won |
| Massey | MOST -12.2 (-4.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 141.5 (+14.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 92% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 93% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MOST -10.7 (-2.7) | 145.9 (+10.1) | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MOST -10.5 (-2.5) | 142.3 (+13.7) | 86% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | MOST -10.3 (-2.3) | 144.2 (+11.8) | 86% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MOST -10.6 (-2.6) | 145.1 (+10.9) | 86% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 20, 2025 | VAL 66 – 64 MOST |
| Jan 2, 2025 | VAL 73 – 72 MOST |
| Jan 27, 2024 | MOST 81 – 70 VAL |
| Feb 2, 2023 | MOST 76 – 67 VAL |
| Mar 5, 2022 | MOST 67 – 58 VAL |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MOST | VAL |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 17-16 | 7-25 |
| Conference | 8-12 | 3-17 |
| Home | 9-5 | 6-11 |
| Away | 4-10 | 1-13 |
| Neutral | 4-1 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 0-5 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 71.2 | 66.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.3 | 76.0 |
| Massey | 1.4 (#144) | -7.5 (#293) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.42 (#136) | -1.45 (#304) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.47 (#139) | -1.36 (#285) |
| RPI | 0.507 (#160) | 0.440 (#291) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MOST | VAL |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.6% | 40.6% |
| 3PT% | 31.5% | 32.3% |
| REB / G | 39.1 | 32.6 |
| OREB / G | 10.1 | 9.5 |
| AST / TO | 1.01 | 1.08 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.8% | 46.3% |
| TOV% | 17.2% | 16.0% |
| ORB% | 28.7% | 25.1% |
| FT Rate | 22.6% | 18.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.8% | 53.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 13.2% | 17.3% |
| DRB% | 75.7% | 68.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 18.6% | 22.1% |
Game Analysis
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