Betting Lines
| Spread | VAL -2.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 139.5 Under |
| Money | VAL -145 MOST +125 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | VAL win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | VAL +2 | 130 | Won |
| Massey | VAL -2.4 (-0.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 145.1 (-15.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 69% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 62% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | VAL -0.3 (+1.7) | 138.3 (-8.3) | 53% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | VAL -2.1 (-0.1) | 142.2 (-12.2) | 61% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | VAL -1.7 (+0.3) | 142.9 (-12.9) | 61% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | VAL -0.9 (+1.1) | 141.1 (-11.1) | 61% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 2, 2025 | VAL 73 – 72 MOST |
| Feb 17, 2024 | MOST 82 – 74 VAL |
| Jan 27, 2024 | MOST 81 – 70 VAL |
| Feb 2, 2023 | MOST 76 – 67 VAL |
| Mar 5, 2022 | MOST 67 – 58 VAL |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | VAL | MOST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 15-19 | 9-23 |
| Conference | 6-14 | 2-18 |
| Home | 10-7 | 7-8 |
| Away | 3-10 | 1-12 |
| Neutral | 2-2 | 1-3 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L6 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.5 | 67.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 75.3 | 71.9 |
| Massey | -4.1 (#232) | -3.3 (#222) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.74 (#239) | -0.98 (#260) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.04 (#246) | -0.85 (#233) |
| RPI | 0.446 (#281) | 0.444 (#289) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | VAL | MOST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 41.7% | 45.0% |
| 3PT% | 31.5% | 36.4% |
| REB / G | 33.2 | 32.3 |
| OREB / G | 10.2 | 10.4 |
| AST / TO | 1.05 | 0.88 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 47.7% | 51.7% |
| TOV% | 14.7% | 20.7% |
| ORB% | 27.9% | 31.7% |
| FT Rate | 28.9% | 22.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 54.7% | 54.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.2% | 19.7% |
| DRB% | 71.5% | 70.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 26.7% | 28.0% |
Game Analysis
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