Betting Lines
| Spread | MOST -11.0 Away covered |
| O/U | 139.5 Under |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MOST win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MOST +9 | 125 | Won |
| Massey | MOST -10.1 (-1.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 144.3 (-19.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 84% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 89% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MOST -8.6 (+0.4) | 139.6 (-14.6) | 81% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MOST -8.6 (+0.4) | 145.6 (-20.6) | 81% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | MOST -8.7 (+0.3) | 145.7 (-20.7) | 80% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MOST -8.5 (+0.5) | 143.2 (-18.2) | 79% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 20, 2025 | VAL 66 – 64 MOST |
| Jan 2, 2025 | VAL 73 – 72 MOST |
| Feb 17, 2024 | MOST 82 – 74 VAL |
| Jan 27, 2024 | MOST 81 – 70 VAL |
| Feb 2, 2023 | MOST 76 – 67 VAL |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MOST | VAL |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 23-11 | 14-18 |
| Conference | 13-5 | 6-12 |
| Home | 12-4 | 8-8 |
| Away | 8-5 | 3-8 |
| Neutral | 3-2 | 3-2 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 76.5 | 68.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 69.3 | 71.0 |
| Massey | 8.7 (#63) | -1.4 (#194) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.00 (#102) | -0.63 (#227) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.54 (#85) | -0.59 (#217) |
| RPI | 0.556 (#72) | 0.467 (#237) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MOST | VAL |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 48.1% | 45.2% |
| 3PT% | 36.9% | 33.5% |
| REB / G | 34.9 | 31.2 |
| OREB / G | 8.3 | 6.5 |
| AST / TO | 1.14 | 1.04 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 55.1% | 51.5% |
| TOV% | 15.5% | 16.6% |
| ORB% | 26.0% | 20.3% |
| FT Rate | 22.5% | 20.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.8% | 52.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.1% | 16.6% |
| DRB% | 76.3% | 74.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.5% | 17.2% |
Game Analysis
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