Betting Lines
| Spread | MOST -4.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 141.5 Over |
| Money | VAL +163 MOST -213 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | VAL win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MOST +11 | 151 | Lost |
| Massey | MOST -2.8 (-8.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 137.0 (+14.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 31% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 35% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MOST -3.8 (-7.2) | 139.2 (+11.8) | 37% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MOST -1.6 (-9.4) | 137.9 (+13.1) | 45% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | MOST -1.9 (-9.1) | 139.6 (+11.4) | 43% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MOST -1.8 (-9.2) | 140.3 (+10.7) | 46% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 20, 2025 | VAL 66 – 64 MOST |
| Jan 2, 2025 | VAL 73 – 72 MOST |
| Feb 17, 2024 | MOST 82 – 74 VAL |
| Feb 2, 2023 | MOST 76 – 67 VAL |
| Mar 5, 2022 | MOST 67 – 58 VAL |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | VAL | MOST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 7-25 | 17-16 |
| Conference | 3-17 | 8-12 |
| Home | 6-11 | 9-5 |
| Away | 1-13 | 4-10 |
| Neutral | 0-1 | 4-1 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 66.5 | 71.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 76.0 | 71.3 |
| Massey | -5.9 (#275) | 0.6 (#156) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.22 (#287) | 0.25 (#154) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.06 (#259) | 0.33 (#151) |
| RPI | 0.443 (#278) | 0.504 (#169) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | VAL | MOST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 40.5% | 43.0% |
| 3PT% | 31.4% | 31.7% |
| REB / G | 34.4 | 38.9 |
| OREB / G | 10.4 | 10.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.02 | 1.00 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 46.0% | 49.7% |
| TOV% | 17.1% | 17.9% |
| ORB% | 28.0% | 28.7% |
| FT Rate | 19.8% | 23.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.4% | 46.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.3% | 13.6% |
| DRB% | 68.1% | 74.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.8% | 18.5% |
Game Analysis
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