Betting Lines
| Spread | MOST -4.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 139.5 Over |
| Money | MOST -200 VAL +170 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MOST win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | VAL +1 | 145 | Lost |
| Massey | MOST -3.6 (-4.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 151.9 (-6.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 66% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 70% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MOST -4.1 (-5.1) | 142.8 (+2.2) | 72% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MOST -2.8 (-3.8) | 145.6 (-0.6) | 65% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | MOST -2.5 (-3.5) | 145.8 (-0.8) | 64% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MOST -2.2 (-3.2) | 145.9 (-0.9) | 65% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 20, 2025 | VAL 66 – 64 MOST |
| Feb 17, 2024 | MOST 82 – 74 VAL |
| Jan 27, 2024 | MOST 81 – 70 VAL |
| Feb 2, 2023 | MOST 76 – 67 VAL |
| Mar 5, 2022 | MOST 67 – 58 VAL |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MOST | VAL |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 9-23 | 15-19 |
| Conference | 2-18 | 6-14 |
| Home | 7-8 | 10-7 |
| Away | 1-12 | 3-10 |
| Neutral | 1-3 | 2-2 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L6 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 67.5 | 72.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.9 | 75.3 |
| Massey | -2.4 (#202) | -1.9 (#197) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.51 (#221) | -0.42 (#211) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.46 (#202) | -0.46 (#201) |
| RPI | 0.479 (#203) | 0.475 (#215) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MOST | VAL |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 41.9% | 40.3% |
| 3PT% | 36.9% | 29.9% |
| REB / G | 36.3 | 34.8 |
| OREB / G | 12.6 | 11.5 |
| AST / TO | 0.89 | 1.02 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 48.2% | 46.0% |
| TOV% | 18.9% | 14.8% |
| ORB% | 34.3% | 30.1% |
| FT Rate | 27.5% | 33.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 54.3% | 53.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.1% | 17.2% |
| DRB% | 74.3% | 71.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 28.3% | 25.1% |
Game Analysis
Loading game analysis…
Failed to load game analysis.