Betting Lines
| Spread | CSU -6.0 Home covered |
| O/U | 130.0 Under |
| Money | CSU -260 FRES +210 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | CSU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | CSU +15 | 115 | Won |
| Massey | CSU -3.7 (+11.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 130.4 (-15.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 85% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 83% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | CSU -3.9 (+11.1) | 129.0 (-14.0) | 75% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | CSU -4.1 (+10.9) | 135.7 (-20.7) | 68% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | CSU -3.8 (+11.2) | 133.8 (-18.8) | 71% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | CSU -4.0 (+11.0) | 132.5 (-17.5) | 72% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 12, 2026 | CSU 67 – 63 FRES |
| Feb 25, 2026 | CSU 74 – 70 FRES |
| Jan 14, 2026 | FRES 79 – 69 CSU |
| Jan 26, 2025 | CSU 69 – 64 FRES |
| Jan 8, 2025 | CSU 91 – 64 FRES |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | CSU | FRES |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 25-6 | 23-13 |
| Conference | 14-4 | 8-9 |
| Home | 14-1 | 14-4 |
| Away | 6-3 | 6-8 |
| Neutral | 5-2 | 3-1 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L2 | W4 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.9 | 66.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 66.2 | 59.6 |
| Massey | 9.6 (#53) | 9.0 (#60) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.65 (#24) | 1.40 (#71) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.89 (#29) | 1.89 (#68) |
| RPI | 0.608 (#26) | 0.548 (#91) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | CSU | FRES |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 49.0% | 44.7% |
| 3PT% | 37.8% | 33.7% |
| REB / G | 32.5 | 33.8 |
| OREB / G | 6.7 | 8.9 |
| AST / TO | 1.43 | 1.09 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 56.3% | 51.0% |
| TOV% | 15.4% | 17.1% |
| ORB% | 22.0% | 28.4% |
| FT Rate | 25.8% | 22.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.3% | 47.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.5% | 20.3% |
| DRB% | 76.1% | 77.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 17.9% | 19.5% |
Game Analysis
Loading game analysis…
Failed to load game analysis.