Everybody's in despair, every girl and boy. "Quinn the Eskimo" - Bob Dylan
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Baseline — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

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38–15 on winners spread MAE 7.8 53 games
Matchup Spread Total Home win Result Pick
Notre Dame @ Clemson +2.2 137.7 58% 76–61 ✗
Vermont @ UAlbany -8.6 134.1 19% 76–63 ✓
Hartford @ NJIT +2.5 137.1 59% 65–49 ✗
UIC @ Purdue Fort Wayne +4.0 142.8 69% 66–73 ✓
Arkansas State @ South Alabama +5.7 139.6 73% 51–70 ✓
Western Carolina @ Wofford +11.3 140.9 87% 57–69 ✓
Charleston @ UNC Wilmington +1.0 154.1 55% 79–85 ✓
Canisius @ Marist +6.5 140.3 77% 70–71 ✓
Central Michigan @ Western Michigan +0.1 141.5 55% 63–77 ✓
South Florida @ Wichita State +11.5 127.4 86% 69–73 ✓
Cincinnati @ Tulsa -4.1 136.1 37% 77–83 ✗
Utah @ Colorado +5.4 140.1 74% 76–81 ✓
Abilene Christian @ Tarleton State -0.1 141.5 43% 77–63 ✓
Pacific @ San Diego +6.3 136.1 78% 54–60 ✓
Evansville @ Southern Illinois +10.2 126.4 85% 62–69 ✓
Drake @ Bradley +3.2 140.6 67% 59–68 ✓
Kansas City @ Oral Roberts +8.3 151.2 75% 86–91 ✓
North Dakota State @ St. Thomas -4.3 147.6 31% 75–64 ✓
Mississippi State @ LSU +9.8 136.5 83% 65–69 ✓
Air Force @ San Diego State +14.0 125.7 88% 64–76 ✓
Ole Miss @ Missouri +0.0 133.6 49% 68–74 ✓
Penn State @ Minnesota +2.0 132.0 63% 70–76 ✓
Portland State @ Montana +4.4 144.7 69% 76–85 ✓
Grand Canyon @ Utah Tech -8.2 139.4 22% 60–61 ✗
Wyoming @ San José State -14.3 139.6 13% 74–52 ✓
Saint Mary's @ Gonzaga +12.9 145.4 86% 58–74 ✓
UCLA @ USC -0.7 139.5 50% 64–67 ✗
Arizona State @ Washington State +12.2 136.7 87% 58–55 ✗
Cal State Northridge @ Cal State Bakersfield +3.8 132.7 64% 71–65 ✗
UC Santa Barbara @ Cal Poly -7.9 130.1 18% 69–64 ✓
UT Rio Grande Valley @ California Baptist +5.4 153.2 75% 72–80 ✓
BYU @ Pepperdine -12.4 148.3 16% 91–85 ✓
Loyola Marymount @ Portland +0.9 142.8 63% 76–86 ✓
Stanford @ Oregon State -6.6 140.9 27% 76–65 ✓
Cal State Fullerton @ Hawai'i +1.0 136.0 56% 55–72 ✓
UConn @ St. John's -2.0 153.4 41% 63–60 ✓
Robert Morris @ Youngstown State +7.5 143.6 78% 73–68 ✗
Northern Kentucky @ Wright State +4.1 142.5 67% 75–71 ✗
Maryland @ Purdue +13.5 156.1 88% 61–62 ✓
Stony Brook @ Maine -7.5 141.0 23% 85–74 ✓
Detroit Mercy @ Oakland +6.7 147.8 78% 59–75 ✓
Monmouth @ Iona +6.9 142.7 77% 62–70 ✓
Siena @ Rider +2.3 133.8 57% 76–75 ✗
Northwestern @ Illinois +9.8 142.1 84% 66–73 ✓
UAB @ Old Dominion -8.3 141.8 23% 72–81 ✗
Green Bay @ Milwaukee +3.0 131.5 59% 44–54 ✓
Manhattan @ Quinnipiac +4.1 152.8 61% 83–66 ✗
Nebraska @ Iowa +16.4 162.5 89% 75–98 ✓
Marshall @ UTEP +7.9 144.7 80% 88–79 ✗
Charlotte @ Middle Tennessee +6.5 149.4 78% 63–78 ✓
Mercer @ UNC Greensboro +4.6 134.1 71% 73–64 ✗
Colorado State @ Boise State +3.2 133.8 71% 77–74 ✗
Northern Iowa @ Loyola Chicago +8.9 139.0 81% 58–85 ✓

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.