Betting Lines
| Spread | USA -6.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 140.5 Under |
| Money | USA -260 ARST +210 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | USA win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | USA +19 | 121 | Won |
| Massey | USA -6.8 (+12.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 140.2 (-19.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 61% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 62% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | USA -5.1 (+13.9) | 138.8 (-17.8) | 72% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | USA -5.4 (+13.6) | 140.0 (-19.0) | 72% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | USA -5.7 (+13.3) | 139.6 (-18.6) | 73% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | USA -5.3 (+13.7) | 138.3 (-17.3) | 72% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 14, 2026 | USA 92 – 88 ARST |
| Jan 16, 2026 | USA 91 – 87 ARST |
| Mar 9, 2025 | ARST 74 – 71 USA |
| Feb 20, 2025 | USA 60 – 56 ARST |
| Jan 10, 2025 | USA 76 – 62 ARST |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | USA | ARST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 21-12 | 18-11 |
| Conference | 9-7 | 8-7 |
| Home | 15-3 | 11-3 |
| Away | 4-8 | 6-7 |
| Neutral | 2-1 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 69.5 | 69.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 65.7 | 68.8 |
| Massey | 3.1 (#122) | -0.7 (#177) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.47 (#136) | 0.51 (#129) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.67 (#122) | 0.75 (#118) |
| RPI | 0.533 (#114) | 0.524 (#130) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | USA | ARST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.3% | 45.3% |
| 3PT% | 32.8% | 34.3% |
| REB / G | 32.5 | 34.9 |
| OREB / G | 8.4 | 10.0 |
| AST / TO | 0.82 | 1.10 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.0% | 50.7% |
| TOV% | 19.4% | 20.6% |
| ORB% | 26.1% | 30.3% |
| FT Rate | 22.3% | 25.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.7% | 49.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 22.2% | 19.5% |
| DRB% | 69.3% | 69.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.6% | 18.6% |
Game Analysis
Loading game analysis…
Failed to load game analysis.