Betting Lines
| Spread | ARST -7.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 143.5 Under |
| Money | ARST -340 USA +270 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ARST win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | USA +4 | 116 | Lost |
| Massey | ARST -7.7 (-11.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 139.4 (-23.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 79% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 85% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ARST -7.4 (-11.4) | 141.5 (-25.5) | 77% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | ARST -8.4 (-12.4) | 142.9 (-26.9) | 81% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ARST -7.1 (-11.1) | 143.4 (-27.4) | 77% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | ARST -7.2 (-11.2) | 143.7 (-27.7) | 77% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 14, 2026 | USA 92 – 88 ARST |
| Jan 16, 2026 | USA 91 – 87 ARST |
| Mar 9, 2025 | ARST 74 – 71 USA |
| Jan 10, 2025 | USA 76 – 62 ARST |
| Feb 24, 2024 | ARST 95 – 78 USA |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ARST | USA |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 25-11 | 21-11 |
| Conference | 13-5 | 13-5 |
| Home | 14-2 | 13-4 |
| Away | 8-6 | 8-6 |
| Neutral | 3-3 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 78.7 | 71.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.5 | 65.5 |
| Massey | 6.4 (#87) | 1.9 (#128) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.85 (#102) | 0.12 (#161) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.27 (#88) | 0.23 (#153) |
| RPI | 0.569 (#60) | 0.506 (#170) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ARST | USA |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.0% | 43.3% |
| 3PT% | 32.1% | 31.6% |
| REB / G | 40.0 | 35.1 |
| OREB / G | 12.9 | 9.4 |
| AST / TO | 1.23 | 1.48 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.0% | 50.9% |
| TOV% | 14.7% | 14.7% |
| ORB% | 32.7% | 27.2% |
| FT Rate | 24.9% | 22.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 45.8% | 47.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.9% | 20.5% |
| DRB% | 69.0% | 68.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 26.0% | 16.5% |
Game Analysis
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