Betting Lines
| Spread | ARST -8.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 149.5 Over |
| Money | ARST -410 USA +320 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ARST win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | USA +4 | 180 | Lost |
| Massey | ARST -7.1 (-11.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 153.0 (+27.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 62% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 68% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ARST -6.0 (-10.0) | 143.9 (+36.1) | 73% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | ARST -7.3 (-11.3) | 144.7 (+35.3) | 76% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ARST -4.4 (-8.4) | 144.5 (+35.5) | 67% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | ARST -5.2 (-9.2) | 144.8 (+35.2) | 74% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 16, 2026 | USA 91 – 87 ARST |
| Mar 9, 2025 | ARST 74 – 71 USA |
| Feb 20, 2025 | USA 60 – 56 ARST |
| Jan 10, 2025 | USA 76 – 62 ARST |
| Feb 24, 2024 | ARST 95 – 78 USA |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ARST | USA |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 20-12 | 21-12 |
| Conference | 11-7 | 11-7 |
| Home | 11-4 | 10-4 |
| Away | 9-7 | 8-7 |
| Neutral | 0-1 | 3-1 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L3 |
| Avg Pts For | 81.8 | 73.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 78.0 | 71.3 |
| Massey | 1.5 (#144) | -2.6 (#211) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.42 (#128) | 0.42 (#129) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.54 (#125) | 0.36 (#139) |
| RPI | 0.544 (#82) | 0.526 (#122) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ARST | USA |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.0% | 46.3% |
| 3PT% | 32.5% | 33.3% |
| REB / G | 41.1 | 34.7 |
| OREB / G | 14.2 | 8.2 |
| AST / TO | 1.05 | 1.26 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.2% | 52.1% |
| TOV% | 19.7% | 13.5% |
| ORB% | 37.8% | 24.7% |
| FT Rate | 27.3% | 26.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.8% | 49.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.5% | 18.5% |
| DRB% | 73.3% | 68.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 27.0% | 16.0% |
Game Analysis
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