Betting Lines
| Spread | USA -0.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 139.5 Under |
| Money | USA -115 ARST -105 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | USA win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | USA +14 | 138 | Won |
| Massey | USA -3.9 (+10.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 137.2 (+0.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 54% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 57% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | USA -2.9 (+11.1) | 136.3 (+1.7) | 64% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | USA -3.1 (+10.9) | 139.5 (-1.5) | 64% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | USA -3.5 (+10.5) | 137.6 (+0.4) | 70% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | USA -3.5 (+10.5) | 137.5 (+0.5) | 61% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 14, 2026 | USA 92 – 88 ARST |
| Jan 16, 2026 | USA 91 – 87 ARST |
| Mar 9, 2025 | ARST 74 – 71 USA |
| Feb 20, 2025 | USA 60 – 56 ARST |
| Feb 24, 2024 | ARST 95 – 78 USA |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | USA | ARST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 21-11 | 25-11 |
| Conference | 13-5 | 13-5 |
| Home | 13-4 | 14-2 |
| Away | 8-6 | 8-6 |
| Neutral | 0-1 | 3-3 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 71.1 | 78.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 65.5 | 70.5 |
| Massey | 5.1 (#93) | 5.4 (#90) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.49 (#133) | 1.12 (#78) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.99 (#105) | 1.59 (#78) |
| RPI | 0.508 (#152) | 0.572 (#59) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | USA | ARST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.1% | 41.3% |
| 3PT% | 32.2% | 31.7% |
| REB / G | 34.3 | 40.8 |
| OREB / G | 9.2 | 12.9 |
| AST / TO | 1.62 | 0.98 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.2% | 48.1% |
| TOV% | 14.5% | 16.1% |
| ORB% | 27.5% | 32.0% |
| FT Rate | 22.5% | 26.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.7% | 44.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 22.4% | 18.1% |
| DRB% | 70.0% | 67.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 15.6% | 27.2% |
Game Analysis
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