Betting Lines
| Spread | ARST -8.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 153.5 Over |
| Money | ARST -350 USA +250 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ARST win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ARST +17 | 173 | Won |
| Massey | ARST -8.0 (+9.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 157.4 (+15.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 73% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 79% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ARST -5.3 (+11.7) | 153.8 (+19.2) | 73% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | ARST -5.4 (+11.6) | 157.5 (+15.5) | 69% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ARST -6.1 (+10.9) | 156.3 (+16.7) | 76% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | ARST -5.1 (+11.9) | 155.7 (+17.3) | 73% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 14, 2026 | USA 92 – 88 ARST |
| Jan 16, 2026 | USA 91 – 87 ARST |
| Mar 9, 2025 | ARST 74 – 71 USA |
| Feb 20, 2025 | USA 60 – 56 ARST |
| Jan 10, 2025 | USA 76 – 62 ARST |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ARST | USA |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 20-17 | 16-16 |
| Conference | 11-7 | 8-10 |
| Home | 10-3 | 11-6 |
| Away | 5-11 | 5-9 |
| Neutral | 5-3 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 78.8 | 73.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 77.0 | 75.9 |
| Massey | 0.8 (#151) | -3.9 (#232) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.09 (#177) | -0.48 (#217) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.09 (#162) | -0.53 (#217) |
| RPI | 0.499 (#178) | 0.473 (#234) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ARST | USA |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.4% | 44.3% |
| 3PT% | 35.7% | 34.9% |
| REB / G | 37.9 | 33.2 |
| OREB / G | 12.8 | 8.1 |
| AST / TO | 1.23 | 0.92 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.4% | 50.7% |
| TOV% | 16.9% | 16.3% |
| ORB% | 34.0% | 23.3% |
| FT Rate | 24.1% | 23.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.0% | 50.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 14.1% | 16.9% |
| DRB% | 69.7% | 68.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 28.6% | 23.8% |
Game Analysis
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