Betting Lines
| Spread | ARST -4.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 154.5 Over |
| Money | USA +160 ARST -192 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | USA win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | USA +4 | 178 | Won |
| Massey | ARST -0.8 (+4.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 155.2 (+22.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 41% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 33% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | USA -0.5 (+3.5) | 149.4 (+28.6) | 49% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | ARST -0.9 (+4.9) | 146.9 (+31.1) | 41% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ARST -0.4 (+4.4) | 147.3 (+30.7) | 49% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | ARST -0.3 (+4.3) | 149.6 (+28.4) | 46% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 14, 2026 | USA 92 – 88 ARST |
| Mar 9, 2025 | ARST 74 – 71 USA |
| Feb 20, 2025 | USA 60 – 56 ARST |
| Jan 10, 2025 | USA 76 – 62 ARST |
| Feb 24, 2024 | ARST 95 – 78 USA |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | USA | ARST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 21-12 | 20-12 |
| Conference | 11-7 | 11-7 |
| Home | 10-4 | 11-4 |
| Away | 8-7 | 9-7 |
| Neutral | 3-1 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L3 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 73.2 | 81.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.3 | 78.0 |
| Massey | -3.0 (#214) | 1.3 (#147) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.25 (#151) | 1.18 (#86) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.09 (#161) | 1.45 (#92) |
| RPI | 0.500 (#174) | 0.598 (#36) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | USA | ARST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.5% | 43.5% |
| 3PT% | 32.4% | 30.9% |
| REB / G | 35.2 | 40.3 |
| OREB / G | 8.9 | 14.1 |
| AST / TO | 1.08 | 0.93 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.9% | 50.1% |
| TOV% | 15.7% | 20.0% |
| ORB% | 27.5% | 37.6% |
| FT Rate | 27.7% | 30.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.3% | 51.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.1% | 15.9% |
| DRB% | 66.7% | 72.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 15.0% | 27.4% |
Game Analysis
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