Betting Lines
| Spread | ARST -3.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 137.5 Over |
| Money | USA +160 ARST -190 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | USA win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ARST +3 | 145 | Lost |
| Massey | ARST -4.0 (+1.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 138.3 (+6.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 37% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 32% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ARST -3.1 (+0.1) | 139.8 (+5.2) | 37% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | ARST -3.2 (+0.2) | 141.8 (+3.2) | 32% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ARST -2.0 (-1.0) | 140.7 (+4.3) | 36% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | ARST -2.2 (-0.8) | 141.9 (+3.1) | 33% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 14, 2026 | USA 92 – 88 ARST |
| Jan 16, 2026 | USA 91 – 87 ARST |
| Feb 20, 2025 | USA 60 – 56 ARST |
| Jan 10, 2025 | USA 76 – 62 ARST |
| Feb 24, 2024 | ARST 95 – 78 USA |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | USA | ARST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 21-11 | 25-11 |
| Conference | 13-5 | 13-5 |
| Home | 13-4 | 14-2 |
| Away | 8-6 | 8-6 |
| Neutral | 0-1 | 3-3 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 71.1 | 78.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 65.5 | 70.5 |
| Massey | 2.3 (#128) | 6.3 (#88) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.24 (#149) | 0.76 (#108) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.40 (#141) | 1.13 (#95) |
| RPI | 0.522 (#138) | 0.564 (#63) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | USA | ARST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.6% | 42.3% |
| 3PT% | 31.9% | 31.4% |
| REB / G | 34.8 | 40.9 |
| OREB / G | 9.6 | 13.3 |
| AST / TO | 1.48 | 1.28 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.1% | 49.2% |
| TOV% | 14.5% | 14.8% |
| ORB% | 27.8% | 34.0% |
| FT Rate | 23.5% | 24.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.4% | 45.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.7% | 17.4% |
| DRB% | 67.8% | 69.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 16.6% | 25.3% |
Game Analysis
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