Betting Lines
| Spread | UNCW -1.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 149.5 Over |
| Money | UNCW -125 COFC +105 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UNCW win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UNCW +6 | 164 | Won |
| Massey | UNCW -0.7 (+5.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 152.3 (+11.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 67% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 61% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UNCW -0.3 (+5.7) | 150.0 (+14.0) | 53% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UNCW -1.2 (+4.8) | 152.9 (+11.1) | 57% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UNCW -1.0 (+5.0) | 154.1 (+9.9) | 55% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UNCW -1.4 (+4.6) | 151.8 (+12.2) | 59% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 2, 2026 | COFC 79 – 76 UNCW |
| Feb 10, 2026 | UNCW 76 – 64 COFC |
| Mar 11, 2025 | UNCW 68 – 67 COFC |
| Feb 14, 2025 | UNCW 86 – 66 COFC |
| Jan 24, 2025 | UNCW 85 – 83 COFC |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UNCW | COFC |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 27-9 | 17-15 |
| Conference | 15-3 | 8-10 |
| Home | 12-2 | 9-6 |
| Away | 9-5 | 7-8 |
| Neutral | 6-2 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 4-1 |
| Streak | W4 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 71.6 | 78.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 69.4 | 76.4 |
| Massey | -1.7 (#201) | 0.6 (#154) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.53 (#125) | 0.31 (#150) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.17 (#162) | 0.27 (#157) |
| RPI | 0.526 (#122) | 0.519 (#145) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UNCW | COFC |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 41.5% | 42.1% |
| 3PT% | 33.4% | 32.5% |
| REB / G | 33.0 | 41.1 |
| OREB / G | 10.7 | 14.1 |
| AST / TO | 1.02 | 0.87 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 47.9% | 48.3% |
| TOV% | 15.6% | 20.2% |
| ORB% | 28.9% | 35.0% |
| FT Rate | 21.8% | 22.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.7% | 50.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.6% | 20.2% |
| DRB% | 70.0% | 75.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 24.2% | 28.3% |
Game Analysis
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