Betting Lines
| Spread | COFC -2.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 155.5 Over |
| Money | COFC -130 UNCW +110 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | COFC win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UNCW +2 | 168 | Lost |
| Massey | COFC -3.2 (-5.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 154.5 (+13.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 79% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 78% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | COFC -2.3 (-4.3) | 148.0 (+20.0) | 59% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | COFC -1.5 (-3.5) | 147.0 (+21.0) | 58% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | COFC -2.3 (-4.3) | 147.2 (+20.8) | 64% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | COFC -3.0 (-5.0) | 145.9 (+22.1) | 61% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 2, 2026 | COFC 79 – 76 UNCW |
| Feb 10, 2026 | UNCW 76 – 64 COFC |
| Mar 11, 2025 | UNCW 68 – 67 COFC |
| Feb 14, 2025 | UNCW 86 – 66 COFC |
| Feb 2, 2024 | UNCW 80 – 74 COFC |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | COFC | UNCW |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 24-9 | 27-8 |
| Conference | 13-5 | 14-4 |
| Home | 13-2 | 15-3 |
| Away | 7-5 | 9-4 |
| Neutral | 4-2 | 3-1 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 76.7 | 76.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 73.9 | 70.3 |
| Massey | 1.4 (#142) | 1.5 (#140) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.20 (#82) | 0.49 (#125) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.07 (#95) | 0.55 (#133) |
| RPI | 0.569 (#59) | 0.533 (#113) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | COFC | UNCW |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.6% | 43.2% |
| 3PT% | 35.9% | 30.6% |
| REB / G | 36.4 | 38.2 |
| OREB / G | 8.8 | 12.8 |
| AST / TO | 1.30 | 1.25 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.7% | 49.2% |
| TOV% | 16.9% | 16.0% |
| ORB% | 25.1% | 35.5% |
| FT Rate | 25.8% | 31.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.5% | 50.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.9% | 18.0% |
| DRB% | 72.0% | 70.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 19.5% | 21.0% |
Game Analysis
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