Betting Lines
| Spread | COFC -4.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 154.5 Under |
| Money | COFC -213 UNCW +163 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | COFC win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UNCW +6 | 154 | Lost |
| Massey | COFC -3.0 (-9.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 158.7 (-4.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 63% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 66% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | COFC -2.6 (-8.6) | 156.7 (-2.7) | 58% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | COFC -4.0 (-10.0) | 153.4 (+0.6) | 66% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | COFC -2.8 (-8.8) | 154.1 (-0.1) | 64% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | COFC -2.9 (-8.9) | 155.3 (-1.3) | 62% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 2, 2026 | COFC 79 – 76 UNCW |
| Feb 10, 2026 | UNCW 76 – 64 COFC |
| Mar 11, 2025 | UNCW 68 – 67 COFC |
| Feb 14, 2025 | UNCW 86 – 66 COFC |
| Jan 24, 2025 | UNCW 85 – 83 COFC |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | COFC | UNCW |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 27-8 | 21-10 |
| Conference | 15-3 | 12-6 |
| Home | 13-2 | 10-2 |
| Away | 10-2 | 10-6 |
| Neutral | 4-4 | 1-2 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 80.5 | 75.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 74.0 | 71.6 |
| Massey | 3.3 (#120) | 3.9 (#113) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.01 (#99) | 1.13 (#91) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.19 (#102) | 1.23 (#98) |
| RPI | 0.555 (#90) | 0.576 (#61) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | COFC | UNCW |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.5% | 42.8% |
| 3PT% | 32.2% | 32.8% |
| REB / G | 40.0 | 34.6 |
| OREB / G | 13.3 | 10.4 |
| AST / TO | 1.36 | 1.22 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.3% | 49.3% |
| TOV% | 14.8% | 12.7% |
| ORB% | 33.5% | 28.5% |
| FT Rate | 21.0% | 27.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.5% | 51.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.0% | 16.5% |
| DRB% | 73.5% | 70.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.4% | 24.8% |
Game Analysis
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