Betting Lines
| Spread | UNCW -5.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 148.5 Under |
| Money | UNCW -200 COFC +170 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UNCW win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UNCW +1 | 135 | Won |
| Massey | UNCW -3.1 (-2.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 151.7 (-16.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 49% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 51% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UNCW -2.4 (-1.4) | 146.7 (-11.7) | 62% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UNCW -3.2 (-2.2) | 145.7 (-10.7) | 63% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UNCW -2.4 (-1.4) | 146.9 (-11.9) | 61% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UNCW -2.4 (-1.4) | 147.8 (-12.8) | 61% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 2, 2026 | COFC 79 – 76 UNCW |
| Feb 10, 2026 | UNCW 76 – 64 COFC |
| Feb 14, 2025 | UNCW 86 – 66 COFC |
| Jan 24, 2025 | UNCW 85 – 83 COFC |
| Feb 2, 2024 | UNCW 80 – 74 COFC |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UNCW | COFC |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 27-8 | 24-9 |
| Conference | 14-4 | 13-5 |
| Home | 15-3 | 13-2 |
| Away | 9-4 | 7-5 |
| Neutral | 3-1 | 4-2 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 76.6 | 76.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.3 | 73.9 |
| Massey | 3.7 (#106) | 0.6 (#151) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.87 (#99) | 0.90 (#96) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.83 (#111) | 0.80 (#114) |
| RPI | 0.553 (#78) | 0.558 (#71) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UNCW | COFC |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.6% | 45.5% |
| 3PT% | 33.7% | 35.1% |
| REB / G | 37.5 | 35.7 |
| OREB / G | 12.0 | 9.2 |
| AST / TO | 1.36 | 1.38 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.6% | 52.5% |
| TOV% | 16.3% | 16.1% |
| ORB% | 35.6% | 26.2% |
| FT Rate | 28.3% | 24.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.0% | 50.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.5% | 16.5% |
| DRB% | 72.0% | 71.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.3% | 18.8% |
Game Analysis
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