Betting Lines
| Spread | COFC -1.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 148.5 Under |
| Money | COFC -130 UNCW +110 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | COFC win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UNCW +12 | 140 | Lost |
| Massey | UNCW -0.1 (-11.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 146.9 (-6.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 51% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 48% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | COFC -1.3 (-13.3) | 144.0 (-4.0) | 56% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UNCW -0.8 (-11.2) | 143.3 (-3.3) | 53% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | COFC -1.3 (-13.3) | 142.3 (-2.3) | 57% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | COFC -1.4 (-13.4) | 143.9 (-3.9) | 56% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 2, 2026 | COFC 79 – 76 UNCW |
| Mar 11, 2025 | UNCW 68 – 67 COFC |
| Feb 14, 2025 | UNCW 86 – 66 COFC |
| Jan 24, 2025 | UNCW 85 – 83 COFC |
| Feb 2, 2024 | UNCW 80 – 74 COFC |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | COFC | UNCW |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 21-11 | 27-7 |
| Conference | 14-4 | 15-3 |
| Home | 11-4 | 15-4 |
| Away | 8-4 | 12-2 |
| Neutral | 2-3 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 75.3 | 74.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 73.9 | 68.1 |
| Massey | 0.0 (#167) | 3.1 (#118) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.58 (#114) | 1.04 (#84) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.43 (#133) | 1.08 (#95) |
| RPI | 0.541 (#90) | 0.550 (#79) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | COFC | UNCW |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.3% | 44.4% |
| 3PT% | 30.1% | 35.0% |
| REB / G | 37.6 | 38.8 |
| OREB / G | 10.6 | 12.5 |
| AST / TO | 1.15 | 1.30 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.1% | 51.2% |
| TOV% | 16.1% | 15.3% |
| ORB% | 30.8% | 35.4% |
| FT Rate | 31.8% | 31.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.9% | 47.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 14.4% | 15.0% |
| DRB% | 68.5% | 72.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 18.1% | 21.0% |
Game Analysis
Loading game analysis…
Failed to load game analysis.