Betting Lines
| Spread | UNCW -5.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 153.5 Under |
| Money | UNCW -225 COFC +190 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UNCW win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UNCW +20 | 152 | Won |
| Massey | UNCW -5.5 (+14.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 154.4 (-2.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 63% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 65% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UNCW -5.8 (+14.2) | 150.5 (+1.5) | 75% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UNCW -5.8 (+14.2) | 148.6 (+3.4) | 74% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UNCW -6.1 (+13.9) | 149.2 (+2.8) | 74% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UNCW -5.8 (+14.2) | 151.0 (+1.0) | 74% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 2, 2026 | COFC 79 – 76 UNCW |
| Feb 10, 2026 | UNCW 76 – 64 COFC |
| Mar 11, 2025 | UNCW 68 – 67 COFC |
| Jan 24, 2025 | UNCW 85 – 83 COFC |
| Feb 2, 2024 | UNCW 80 – 74 COFC |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UNCW | COFC |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 27-8 | 24-9 |
| Conference | 14-4 | 13-5 |
| Home | 15-3 | 13-2 |
| Away | 9-4 | 7-5 |
| Neutral | 3-1 | 4-2 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 76.6 | 76.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.3 | 73.9 |
| Massey | 2.9 (#117) | 0.5 (#153) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.99 (#94) | 1.02 (#92) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.96 (#104) | 0.98 (#102) |
| RPI | 0.555 (#77) | 0.557 (#72) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UNCW | COFC |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.5% | 44.8% |
| 3PT% | 33.9% | 35.3% |
| REB / G | 37.8 | 36.1 |
| OREB / G | 12.1 | 9.5 |
| AST / TO | 1.30 | 1.35 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.8% | 51.9% |
| TOV% | 16.3% | 16.3% |
| ORB% | 34.9% | 27.0% |
| FT Rate | 29.6% | 25.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.6% | 50.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.1% | 16.8% |
| DRB% | 71.1% | 71.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.6% | 19.7% |
Game Analysis
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