Betting Lines
| Spread | UNCW -5.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 146.5 Over |
| Money | UNCW -225 COFC +185 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UNCW win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | COFC +3 | 155 | Lost |
| Massey | UNCW -6.9 (-9.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 142.5 (+12.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 81% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 86% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UNCW -6.5 (-9.5) | 139.5 (+15.5) | 76% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UNCW -6.2 (-9.2) | 137.0 (+18.0) | 76% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | UNCW -6.2 (-9.2) | 136.6 (+18.4) | 74% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UNCW -6.6 (-9.6) | 138.8 (+16.2) | 78% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 10, 2026 | UNCW 76 – 64 COFC |
| Mar 11, 2025 | UNCW 68 – 67 COFC |
| Feb 14, 2025 | UNCW 86 – 66 COFC |
| Jan 24, 2025 | UNCW 85 – 83 COFC |
| Feb 2, 2024 | UNCW 80 – 74 COFC |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UNCW | COFC |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 27-7 | 21-11 |
| Conference | 15-3 | 14-4 |
| Home | 15-4 | 11-4 |
| Away | 12-2 | 8-4 |
| Neutral | 0-1 | 2-3 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 74.6 | 75.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 68.1 | 73.9 |
| Massey | 4.3 (#109) | 0.4 (#156) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.44 (#72) | 0.53 (#117) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.56 (#81) | 0.37 (#131) |
| RPI | 0.574 (#53) | 0.541 (#88) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UNCW | COFC |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.0% | 45.0% |
| 3PT% | 35.7% | 30.8% |
| REB / G | 38.9 | 37.4 |
| OREB / G | 12.5 | 10.4 |
| AST / TO | 1.37 | 1.22 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.8% | 50.8% |
| TOV% | 14.4% | 16.0% |
| ORB% | 34.7% | 30.0% |
| FT Rate | 30.3% | 30.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.3% | 48.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.1% | 14.5% |
| DRB% | 73.5% | 69.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.3% | 18.5% |
Game Analysis
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