Betting Lines
| Spread | UNCG -4.0 Away covered |
| O/U | 127.5 Over |
| Money | UNCG -190 MER +160 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UNCG win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MER +9 | 137 | Lost |
| Massey | UNCG -5.3 (-14.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 127.4 (+9.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 69% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 71% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UNCG -4.9 (-13.9) | 131.2 (+5.8) | 71% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UNCG -4.2 (-13.2) | 133.0 (+4.0) | 70% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | UNCG -4.6 (-13.6) | 134.1 (+2.9) | 71% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UNCG -4.4 (-13.4) | 133.7 (+3.3) | 69% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 30, 2026 | MER 95 – 77 UNCG |
| Jan 17, 2026 | MER 102 – 92 UNCG |
| Feb 22, 2025 | UNCG 78 – 61 MER |
| Jan 23, 2025 | MER 79 – 78 UNCG |
| Feb 24, 2024 | MER 86 – 72 UNCG |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UNCG | MER |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 17-15 | 16-17 |
| Conference | 9-9 | 8-10 |
| Home | 9-5 | 10-4 |
| Away | 7-6 | 4-11 |
| Neutral | 1-4 | 2-2 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L3 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 64.6 | 69.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 65.1 | 71.9 |
| Massey | -0.1 (#167) | -2.5 (#220) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.48 (#135) | 0.17 (#160) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.39 (#146) | 0.03 (#174) |
| RPI | 0.524 (#129) | 0.508 (#167) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UNCG | MER |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.9% | 44.3% |
| 3PT% | 34.7% | 35.7% |
| REB / G | 35.2 | 31.8 |
| OREB / G | 10.3 | 7.7 |
| AST / TO | 0.91 | 1.14 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.6% | 52.2% |
| TOV% | 20.8% | 18.9% |
| ORB% | 31.8% | 23.8% |
| FT Rate | 19.7% | 22.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.7% | 53.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.5% | 16.2% |
| DRB% | 76.1% | 73.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.6% | 21.0% |
Game Analysis
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