Betting Lines
| Spread | CIN -2.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 135.0 Over |
| Money | TLSA +120 CIN -140 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | TLSA win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | TLSA +6 | 160 | Won |
| Massey | CIN -4.5 (+10.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 133.4 (+26.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 17% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 14% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | CIN -3.8 (+9.8) | 136.8 (+23.2) | 43% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | CIN -3.8 (+9.8) | 135.4 (+24.6) | 38% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | CIN -4.1 (+10.1) | 136.0 (+24.0) | 31% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | CIN -4.1 (+10.1) | 136.1 (+23.9) | 37% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 2, 2023 | CIN 81 – 55 TLSA |
| Jan 21, 2022 | CIN 90 – 69 TLSA |
| Feb 25, 2021 | CIN 70 – 69 TLSA |
| Jan 2, 2021 | TLSA 70 – 66 CIN |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | TLSA | CIN |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 11-20 | 18-15 |
| Conference | 4-14 | 7-11 |
| Home | 8-8 | 12-6 |
| Away | 1-10 | 4-7 |
| Neutral | 2-2 | 2-2 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 67.4 | 69.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 69.9 | 66.2 |
| Massey | 0.2 (#160) | 7.7 (#70) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.82 (#244) | 1.28 (#83) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.58 (#214) | 1.76 (#75) |
| RPI | 0.435 (#297) | 0.547 (#91) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | TLSA | CIN |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.5% | 41.3% |
| 3PT% | 33.8% | 32.0% |
| REB / G | 32.2 | 38.2 |
| OREB / G | 9.6 | 11.7 |
| AST / TO | 0.91 | 1.24 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.4% | 47.8% |
| TOV% | 18.9% | 15.9% |
| ORB% | 28.4% | 31.0% |
| FT Rate | 21.1% | 19.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 53.2% | 42.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 22.0% | 18.6% |
| DRB% | 69.2% | 70.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.3% | 23.8% |
Game Analysis
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