Betting Lines
| Spread | CIN -8.0 Home covered |
| O/U | 132.5 Over |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | CIN win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | CIN +21 | 159 | Won |
| Massey | CIN -10.2 (+10.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 130.4 (+28.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 91% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 94% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | CIN -8.7 (+12.3) | 136.5 (+22.5) | 77% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | CIN -9.0 (+12.0) | 138.0 (+21.0) | 80% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | CIN -8.6 (+12.4) | 136.7 (+22.3) | 81% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | CIN -9.2 (+11.8) | 136.2 (+22.8) | 78% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 2, 2023 | CIN 81 – 55 TLSA |
| Feb 13, 2022 | TLSA 83 – 77 CIN |
| Feb 25, 2021 | CIN 70 – 69 TLSA |
| Jan 2, 2021 | TLSA 70 – 66 CIN |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | CIN | TLSA |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 18-15 | 11-20 |
| Conference | 7-11 | 4-14 |
| Home | 12-6 | 8-8 |
| Away | 4-7 | 1-10 |
| Neutral | 2-2 | 2-2 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 69.4 | 67.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 66.2 | 69.9 |
| Massey | 7.9 (#67) | 1.4 (#138) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.20 (#84) | -0.52 (#215) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.86 (#71) | -0.24 (#189) |
| RPI | 0.538 (#110) | 0.460 (#239) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | CIN | TLSA |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.2% | 43.8% |
| 3PT% | 31.7% | 35.1% |
| REB / G | 38.5 | 30.9 |
| OREB / G | 12.1 | 9.5 |
| AST / TO | 1.47 | 0.98 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 48.5% | 49.9% |
| TOV% | 14.7% | 17.9% |
| ORB% | 32.4% | 28.4% |
| FT Rate | 18.3% | 18.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 42.5% | 53.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.7% | 24.3% |
| DRB% | 70.6% | 67.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.4% | 19.5% |
Game Analysis
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