Betting Lines
| Spread | USD -6.0 Push |
| O/U | 131.0 Under |
| Money | USD -260 PAC +210 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | USD win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | USD +6 | 114 | Won |
| Massey | USD -7.8 (-1.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 129.1 (-15.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 90% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 94% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | USD -4.0 (+2.0) | 132.9 (-18.9) | 70% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | USD -6.7 (-0.7) | 135.3 (-21.3) | 75% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | USD -6.3 (-0.3) | 136.1 (-22.1) | 78% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | USD -6.1 (-0.1) | 137.1 (-23.1) | 74% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 11, 2026 | PAC 77 – 70 USD |
| Dec 28, 2025 | USD 66 – 54 PAC |
| Mar 6, 2025 | USD 81 – 77 PAC |
| Feb 7, 2025 | PAC 71 – 69 USD |
| Dec 31, 2024 | USD 75 – 65 PAC |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | USD | PAC |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 15-16 | 8-22 |
| Conference | 7-9 | 3-11 |
| Home | 8-6 | 7-7 |
| Away | 4-8 | 0-13 |
| Neutral | 3-2 | 0-2 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L4 |
| Avg Pts For | 63.9 | 65.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 68.7 | 73.6 |
| Massey | -1.5 (#197) | -6.3 (#274) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.19 (#158) | -1.51 (#295) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.41 (#144) | -1.80 (#292) |
| RPI | 0.505 (#171) | 0.417 (#315) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | USD | PAC |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.9% | 40.3% |
| 3PT% | 33.9% | 31.5% |
| REB / G | 35.4 | 33.0 |
| OREB / G | 9.6 | 8.5 |
| AST / TO | 0.74 | 0.98 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 47.4% | 45.6% |
| TOV% | 19.0% | 17.0% |
| ORB% | 27.3% | 23.0% |
| FT Rate | 19.1% | 20.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.1% | 54.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.7% | 19.4% |
| DRB% | 72.4% | 78.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 16.9% | 21.3% |
Game Analysis
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