Betting Lines
| Spread | PAC -1.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 147.5 Over |
| Money | PAC -130 USD +110 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | PAC win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | USD +4 | 158 | Lost |
| Massey | PAC -1.2 (-5.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 145.6 (+12.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 70% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 65% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | PAC -1.7 (-5.7) | 145.9 (+12.1) | 55% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | PAC -0.4 (-4.4) | 144.4 (+13.6) | 52% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | PAC -1.8 (-5.8) | 143.6 (+14.4) | 56% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | PAC -2.0 (-6.0) | 144.8 (+13.2) | 56% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 11, 2026 | PAC 77 – 70 USD |
| Dec 28, 2025 | USD 66 – 54 PAC |
| Feb 7, 2025 | PAC 71 – 69 USD |
| Dec 31, 2024 | USD 75 – 65 PAC |
| Mar 3, 2024 | USD 81 – 69 PAC |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | PAC | USD |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 9-24 | 6-27 |
| Conference | 4-14 | 2-16 |
| Home | 5-10 | 5-13 |
| Away | 2-13 | 0-12 |
| Neutral | 1-1 | 1-2 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L5 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 68.0 | 70.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 77.2 | 80.2 |
| Massey | -7.3 (#283) | -8.5 (#303) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.66 (#317) | -2.52 (#349) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -2.08 (#314) | -2.71 (#338) |
| RPI | 0.423 (#320) | 0.394 (#350) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | PAC | USD |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.4% | 40.2% |
| 3PT% | 29.4% | 29.0% |
| REB / G | 33.8 | 34.7 |
| OREB / G | 10.0 | 11.5 |
| AST / TO | 0.92 | 0.87 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 48.0% | 45.5% |
| TOV% | 18.9% | 18.1% |
| ORB% | 28.4% | 29.6% |
| FT Rate | 23.4% | 22.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 53.4% | 53.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.1% | 18.3% |
| DRB% | 72.1% | 68.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 28.0% | 33.6% |
Game Analysis
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