Betting Lines
| Spread | PAC -2.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 150.5 Under |
| Money | USD +124 PAC -148 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | USD win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | USD +12 | 120 | Won |
| Massey | PAC -5.3 (+17.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 145.1 (-25.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 26% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 15% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | PAC -5.1 (+17.1) | 140.3 (-20.3) | 37% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | PAC -5.1 (+17.1) | 140.9 (-20.9) | 31% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | PAC -5.4 (+17.4) | 142.5 (-22.5) | 33% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | PAC -5.8 (+17.8) | 139.7 (-19.7) | 30% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 11, 2026 | PAC 77 – 70 USD |
| Mar 6, 2025 | USD 81 – 77 PAC |
| Feb 7, 2025 | PAC 71 – 69 USD |
| Dec 31, 2024 | USD 75 – 65 PAC |
| Mar 3, 2024 | USD 81 – 69 PAC |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | USD | PAC |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 12-21 | 18-15 |
| Conference | 5-13 | 8-10 |
| Home | 9-8 | 11-3 |
| Away | 2-11 | 4-11 |
| Neutral | 1-2 | 3-1 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.8 | 71.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 78.8 | 69.8 |
| Massey | -5.4 (#251) | 4.1 (#115) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.55 (#228) | 1.18 (#92) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.91 (#231) | 1.57 (#95) |
| RPI | 0.455 (#256) | 0.553 (#91) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | USD | PAC |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.7% | 47.2% |
| 3PT% | 32.3% | 32.7% |
| REB / G | 30.1 | 38.6 |
| OREB / G | 10.8 | 10.8 |
| AST / TO | 1.10 | 0.95 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.0% | 53.1% |
| TOV% | 18.9% | 20.7% |
| ORB% | 30.6% | 33.9% |
| FT Rate | 22.0% | 26.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 54.8% | 48.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.4% | 15.6% |
| DRB% | 61.6% | 74.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 30.0% | 27.3% |
Game Analysis
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