Betting Lines
| Spread | USD -1.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 143.5 Under |
| Money | USD -120 PAC +100 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | USD win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | USD +10 | 140 | Won |
| Massey | USD -1.2 (+8.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 137.0 (+3.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 45% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 51% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | USD -0.7 (+9.3) | 138.7 (+1.3) | 50% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | USD -1.7 (+8.3) | 137.7 (+2.3) | 63% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | USD -0.9 (+9.1) | 136.7 (+3.3) | 49% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | USD -0.4 (+9.6) | 136.8 (+3.2) | 51% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 11, 2026 | PAC 77 – 70 USD |
| Dec 28, 2025 | USD 66 – 54 PAC |
| Mar 6, 2025 | USD 81 – 77 PAC |
| Feb 7, 2025 | PAC 71 – 69 USD |
| Mar 3, 2024 | USD 81 – 69 PAC |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | USD | PAC |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 6-27 | 9-24 |
| Conference | 2-16 | 4-14 |
| Home | 5-13 | 5-10 |
| Away | 0-12 | 2-13 |
| Neutral | 1-2 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 0-5 | 0-5 |
| Streak | L1 | L5 |
| Avg Pts For | 70.2 | 68.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 80.2 | 77.2 |
| Massey | -9.5 (#321) | -6.5 (#279) |
| Bradley-Terry | -2.66 (#342) | -1.69 (#310) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -2.77 (#334) | -1.94 (#291) |
| RPI | 0.371 (#350) | 0.434 (#290) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | USD | PAC |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 39.9% | 40.7% |
| 3PT% | 26.7% | 27.6% |
| REB / G | 36.2 | 36.1 |
| OREB / G | 11.3 | 10.9 |
| AST / TO | 0.73 | 1.06 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 44.8% | 45.9% |
| TOV% | 21.4% | 17.8% |
| ORB% | 29.2% | 29.5% |
| FT Rate | 19.2% | 24.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.8% | 51.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.7% | 14.4% |
| DRB% | 69.2% | 71.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 30.0% | 24.8% |
Game Analysis
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