Betting Lines
| Spread | PAC -3.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 145.5 Under |
| Money | PAC -155 USD +135 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | PAC win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | PAC +2 | 140 | Won |
| Massey | PAC -3.8 (-1.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 145.6 (-5.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 80% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 73% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | PAC -3.1 (-1.1) | 143.7 (-3.7) | 67% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | PAC -1.9 (+0.1) | 143.0 (-3.0) | 67% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | PAC -2.8 (-0.8) | 142.1 (-2.1) | 64% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | PAC -2.5 (-0.5) | 142.7 (-2.7) | 69% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 11, 2026 | PAC 77 – 70 USD |
| Dec 28, 2025 | USD 66 – 54 PAC |
| Mar 6, 2025 | USD 81 – 77 PAC |
| Dec 31, 2024 | USD 75 – 65 PAC |
| Mar 3, 2024 | USD 81 – 69 PAC |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | PAC | USD |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 9-24 | 6-27 |
| Conference | 4-14 | 2-16 |
| Home | 5-10 | 5-13 |
| Away | 2-13 | 0-12 |
| Neutral | 1-1 | 1-2 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 0-5 |
| Streak | L5 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 68.0 | 70.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 77.2 | 80.2 |
| Massey | -8.0 (#295) | -8.7 (#305) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.75 (#323) | -2.60 (#347) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -2.44 (#325) | -2.81 (#337) |
| RPI | 0.418 (#320) | 0.395 (#340) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | PAC | USD |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 41.7% | 39.9% |
| 3PT% | 29.5% | 28.4% |
| REB / G | 33.6 | 35.3 |
| OREB / G | 10.4 | 11.5 |
| AST / TO | 0.97 | 0.79 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 47.4% | 45.0% |
| TOV% | 18.7% | 19.1% |
| ORB% | 28.9% | 29.7% |
| FT Rate | 22.7% | 21.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 53.8% | 51.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.8% | 18.3% |
| DRB% | 70.7% | 68.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 27.9% | 34.4% |
Game Analysis
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