Betting Lines
| Spread | LSU -6.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 137.0 Under |
| Money | LSU -270 MSST +220 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | LSU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | LSU +4 | 134 | Won |
| Massey | LSU -9.9 (-5.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 132.3 (+1.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 81% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 86% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | LSU -8.5 (-4.5) | 134.9 (-0.9) | 81% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | LSU -9.4 (-5.4) | 137.5 (-3.5) | 81% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | LSU -9.8 (-5.8) | 136.5 (-2.5) | 83% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | LSU -8.2 (-4.2) | 138.7 (-4.7) | 81% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 29, 2026 | MSST 80 – 66 LSU |
| Mar 12, 2025 | MSST 91 – 62 LSU |
| Mar 1, 2025 | MSST 81 – 69 LSU |
| Mar 14, 2024 | MSST 70 – 60 LSU |
| Feb 25, 2024 | MSST 87 – 67 LSU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | LSU | MSST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 22-12 | 18-16 |
| Conference | 9-9 | 8-10 |
| Home | 15-2 | 14-3 |
| Away | 3-8 | 1-10 |
| Neutral | 4-2 | 3-3 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L2 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.6 | 70.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 63.4 | 66.2 |
| Massey | 17.1 (#12) | 10.2 (#46) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.46 (#26) | 1.48 (#67) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.04 (#26) | 1.81 (#69) |
| RPI | 0.624 (#15) | 0.554 (#80) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | LSU | MSST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.1% | 47.2% |
| 3PT% | 33.1% | 32.6% |
| REB / G | 38.9 | 36.4 |
| OREB / G | 12.3 | 11.1 |
| AST / TO | 0.83 | 1.09 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.6% | 52.2% |
| TOV% | 21.1% | 19.0% |
| ORB% | 34.2% | 34.5% |
| FT Rate | 22.5% | 26.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 44.0% | 50.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 25.1% | 19.1% |
| DRB% | 70.3% | 75.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.0% | 19.3% |
Game Analysis
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